Signs of the time

[Air Hog]

I have been involved in Microlight flying since 2007 and have closely monitored the aircraft market over this period. I can remember in 2007 when I bought my first trike, I bought my Windlass for R50000. It was a good price at the time. Today you can buy a Windlass for R25000 AND then it is still on the market for a couple of weeks before the deal is done. There are Aquilla's for sale and the sellers are almost giving them away! Raptors at R65000, are you crazy? In 2007 you could not find a Raptor below R100000!
Have a look at the Aircraft for Sale section! It is an absolute Buyers market. It is actually confusing because the variety is that big.
It must be really bad out there, much worst than what we think!!!

[nicow]

My hanger is to small for all the bargains ...

[CVStrong]

Heya Airhog,

Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that most of the aircraft that are selling for these prices are older airies?
I paid R65k for my Raptor, but remember it's serial no is "001" and I had to spend a fair bit on getting her in what I, and my AP feel is the right condition...

In fairness, I think it also has to do with the fact that these days people have less and less disposable income which can be spent on toys... so from that perspective, the "right" price for an airie, especially one that is not going to "work" is what someone is prepared to pay for it...

Just my thoughts

Craig

[Bundy]

I agree with Craig that a lot of the trikes on sale today are older models....go ask Microcraft Africa how many brand new Aquilla's were sold locally in the last 3 years.... Scary stuff...

It may seem like a buyers market but these aircraft are getting older with very few "new machines" entering the market place. At the end of the day the WCM world is not growing, in fact I believe it is in a big decline, mostly because of the LSA market which is doing very well. If our numbers were growing the 2nd hand market would be good for sellers....it aint I'm afraid.

R250k is a lot of money to pay for a brand new entry level trike like the Aquilla. A lot of trikers are moving to 3 axis and a lot of PPL's are selling their 40 year old planes and going LSA too.

At the end of the day...an asset is only worth what someone else is willing to pay for it.

Personally, I would not pay more than R65k for a 5-600 hour trike that's more than 10 years old mainly because of the cost of replacing the wing, engine overhhauling and major airframe components will all be very forthcoming, and will in all likelyhood double your purchase price?

[bobthebuilder]

At the end of the day the WCM world is not growing, in fact I believe it is in a big decline, mostly because of the LSA market which is doing very well

While I tend to agree with you, the schools do seem to be busy.
Would be interesting to get stats from Fanie, Mervyn, and Marius.

[HansH]

There is a lot of talk of recession etc but I find it hard to accept that people cannot afford to pay R100-200K for an aircraft when you see the large number of luxury cars and 4x4's on the roads and visitors from Gauteng cleaning out the local fish shop of all the lobsters that sell for R700-900 each.
More and more people are opting out of recreational flying because of all the bureaucratic bulls**t, medical inefficiencies that have been ongoing for years,ICASA, threats of prosecution and ridiculously draconian fines they are being exposed to. After years and years there is still confusion as regards signalling strips, fire extinguishers and now the latest madness concerning thermometers in first aid kits. Is it asking too much that the CAA people get together with the role players such as Misasa, RAASA, EAA, AOPA and other subsections to thrash out what is what, come to an agreement and then inform the rest of the flying fraternity on what has been decided. In the 70's I was with SAAPA and we had regular official meetings with the Commisioner and problems were resolved on the day. Now one gets the feeling that the ego's at CAA are so large that they reckon that they, and only they, are capable of making decisions and that the rest of the flying fraternity are nothing more than unknowledgeable troublemaking nuisances.
And it is not only CAA but let's look at RAASA exams. A few years ago I did the Air Law exam and before starting I was given a list of questions and told what wrong answers I had to fill in because if I put in the correct answer then that would be deemed to be the wrong answer. Made me feel as if I was in Alice's Wonderland and I had just gate crashed the Mad Hatters tea party. Surely a small group of highly experienced pilots could be got together to clean up the exam mess and strucure the questions so that they have relevance to the flying aspect and not be presented in a fashion so as to trap candidates with trick questions which seems to be a symbol of bureaucratic one upmanship and attempted superiority.
When somebody asks me about flying my answer is "go for it if you want to make a career of it, otherwise forget it...too much bulls##t, go buy yourself a Harley and have a great time."

[Boet]

And so the train is emptying..........

[Turbo]

hans i disagree on a few levels here -- firsyly a "hardly dangerous" is a loud, vibrating hunk of junk that i cannot dream of having fun on - at least compared to flying that is .... mmhhh ya. NOTHING compares to flying!

Secondly have you tried to finance a vehicle lately -- it is the simplest and fastest thing to do to date! keep in mind that banks also have to make targets and have MASSIVE overheads, which require finance goals to meet. The housing sector has fallen flat since the NCA has introduced the "malema minded" laws surrounding liability for jointly owned property and income versus affordibility to purchase a home! So the banks are putting all their focus on financing cars, making money off bank accounts themselves like FNB's STEVE -- look at Audi -- they have a prime less 3% on at the moment -- GEEESH thats almost the same interest rate as the USA -- un-heard of in Africa!

and now moving to funeral plans and "invest your cash with us" BS marketting stints. The disposable income required for an LSA, trike or flying toy is CASH, not financed -- unless you have a personal loan, which is provided at such a high interest rate its not worth it! i think since anglo and one other mine have let go of 2000 management positions, people are weary about job security.... we need to count our penies and make sure we look ahead and tread carefully with finances, as insecurity in our countries economy i believe is whats puzzling and worrying people at the moment.

in general - things are bad and getting worse -- i cannot wait until whatever is set to happen, happens and we start climbing again!!!

Yet i have to agree with the mass of BS that once again "malema minded" IDIOTS are imposing into the industry ... then there is the other side of the BS coin, with the guys at some airfields with loooong stories about regulations and all sorts of other crap that try and scare you into a corner to spend money with them.... AG its so sad, and im a newbie to this....

[Bundy]

Is it asking too much that the CAA people get together with the role players such as Misasa, RAASA, EAA, AOPA and other subsections to thrash out what is what, come to an agreement and then inform the rest of the flying fraternity on what has been decided. In the 70's I was with SAAPA and we had regular official meetings with the Commisioner and problems were resolved on the day. Now one gets the feeling that the ego's at CAA are so large that they reckon that they, and only they, are capable of making decisions and that the rest of the flying fraternity are nothing more than unknowledgeable troublemaking nuisances.
And it is not only CAA but let's look at RAASA exams. A few years ago I did the Air Law exam and before starting I was given a list of questions and told what wrong answers I had to fill in because if I put in the correct answer then that would be deemed to be the wrong answer. Made me feel as if I was in Alice's Wonderland and I had just gate crashed the Mad Hatters tea party. Surely a small group of highly experienced pilots could be got together to clean up the exam mess and strucure the questions so that they have relevance to the flying aspect and not be presented in a fashion so as to trap candidates with trick questions which seems to be a symbol of bureaucratic one upmanship and attempted superiority.

Hi Hans,

Not sure if you are reading the newsletters I send out monthly but a lot of the issues you raise above are being dealt with as we speak. Misasa has at this stage 1006 members and we recieved less than 10 responses to the "Ramp Inspection Checklist" enquiry we made. Rowena is finalising this proposal at the moment and it will then go on to CAA for deliberation.

WRT the exam questions, this issue was raised in the EXCO meeting we had last month and we are lucky to have 5 insructors on the Misasa Exco who have been tasked to sort out the problems and get RAASA to make the necessary changes.

ICASA...ya well what can I say? Useless and unnecessary are adjectives than immediately come to mind. I dont see that mess being sorted out any time soon. Our licence was paid in March...still no licence...in fact they sent us the same invoice again (which we had already paid!!!). I cannot see the logic in making this extra hurdle an annual requirement for any aircraft. I dont mind paying the R100 odd rand a year admin fee but FFS...why cant you just be issued your radio licence once? It should be registered and then valid for the period in which you own that radio...why do we need a different piece of paper every flippen year? If you can get the beurocrats at Icasa to do something practical and positive...you will trully be hailed as a hero!

Good luck!

[Conrad]

Ja, and I am also selling my luxury 4x4

[Air Hog]

I agree with some of what was said here but I still say the economy is much worse than what we think. OK, a lot of these aircraft that is for sale is old and because of that the prices are low. But, we also have low hour planes and not so old that is not selling and when they do sell it is at much less than what they are worth. Also,lets face it, these are our toys. Why would you buy a new one at R230,000 if you can buy one in a good condition for less than R80,000. That is why they are not selling new Trikes. They have priced themselves out of the market. Trikes are the entry level to Microlighting and nobody wants to spend R230,000 on a entry level toy.

Have a look at the flying clubs. Four years ago, we were 15 - 20 aircraft going for a breakfast jol. Now a days, you are lucky if you get 5. At Kroon, we have close to 50 aircraft parked in the hangers of which we have less than 10 active. The others are just gathering dust. People just cannot afford these toys anymore and they are flooding the market, hence the low prices. Look at the aircraft for sale section on Microlighters. You are spoiled for choice.
I agree about the movement away from Trikes, also at Kroon the 3-axe planes are starting to take over.

Just my 2 cents worth...

[Paul Meanwell]

Maybe as we get nearer to the weekend, (most people's best flying opportunities) the mood will get more positive! Those that think its time to give in need to get back on their airies, it only takes one flip to remind you why you fly!

We will only stop the BS when enough people get off of their backsides and join the relevant committee's and provide the input to the processes. It's the only way to put the pressure on the authorities.

True, the financial pressure is greater these days, but you need to take stock and make sure you also invest in your free time and passion, otherwise what's left? There are still great aircraft to be had out there.....

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=21541

[Bundy]

Ja, and I am also selling my luxury 4x4

Buy a nice Ipoopoo like mine... A to B chom...what else do you really need? Leaves more moolah for flying!

Have a look at the flying clubs. Four years ago, we were 15 - 20 aircraft going for a breakfast jol. Now a days, you are lucky if you get 5. At Kroon, we have close to 50 aircraft parked in the hangers of which we have less than 10 active. The others are just gathering dust.

Same everywhere Johan...ML has 100 aircraft paying hangerage (So I'm told) if there are 25 flying more than once a month its a lot...crying shame to see a trike with 100hrs on the hobbs with it's wing buckling under the weight of the dust!

Those that think its time to give in need to get back on their airies, it only takes one flip to remind you why you fly!

I have nothing to add to that Paul...

[Tumbleweed]

I think its just a change of focus. The flyers of the eighties were not all thriving entrepeneurs but blue collar workers e.t.c.

As the Alpha male, sole provider and patriach, we absorb too many manageable overheads like'

Garden service when the brats ly around playing play station,

Armed repsonse, when it was a joy to catch the fu$%$^&ers and they were afraid,

Brats equipt with the latest I Pads, Laptops, Blueberrry's,

a Cool first car for brats while they're still at school- its not cool to ride bicycles,

Brats been sent to college, varsity out the back pocket when the old threat would be " If you wonna study, qualify for a bursery, or join the mine for a trade"

Leasing / hp the second car and paying ridiculous insurance and trackers- they're not scared anymore, when a volla or Nissan 1400 would have done the wife proud,

Take -aways -R80 for kak hamburgers and wraps, spicy ball crap- where's the fish 'n chips and beer?

Using up the 50 lt of flying fuel to drop and collect brats on their jol,

Tipping fu^&*(ng car guards coz they're not scared,

Right, where was I? The weather. Blame the fu$%^&*ing weather.

[Paul Meanwell]

And since we all know that the government is responsible for the weather too, I guess we are back where we started!