Africa Cup 2013

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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby Asterix » Wed Sep 18, 2013 10:15 pm

Luan wrote:Alas you guys are right... It is as I feared the sky doesn't look happy, I guess I knew that else I wouldn't have been so hesitant. This is the damn hardest part of being a pilot, saying No-Go. A wise man once told me, a real pilot uses his knowledge to avoid using his skill (which in my opinion I don't have nearly enough of yet). I might just as well still drive down there for a beer and tjop! I cannot wait another year for the wx to maybe be ok, is the runway serviceable during other times of the year? Perhaps get a gaggle of a few trikes and go there when the conditions are more favorable.
My first "attempt" at Numbi happened four years ago. LOW hours, NO experience of mountains. Microland was fogged in. And Middelburg, from telephonic reports - also fogged in. Around 11h00, some experienced pilots did a quick routing re-calc, and anounced that we can go via Dullstroom, Walkersons strip - :shock: :shock: at best.

Having planned and played the trip through my head for a week before, this sudden change in plans made me feel uncomfortable - so I pushed my plane back into the hangar, went home, and braaied a steak. And had a sixpack! vhpy The seasoned pilots arrived at Numbi around 16h00, knocked silly and senseless from their escarpment crossing. But safe. My luggage did the trip - a friend of mine drove my "backpack" and my "petrolkanne" there and back - with me - a "No Show." :oops:

My second attempt was last year - and we made it - in good weather.

My third attempt is this year. I'm driving there. ## based on my personal view of the weather, coupled with my personal believe in my abilities. Other people may have better abilities, take on more, and I will never question their decisions. It is about what YOU feel comfortable with. And if you decide to remain earthbound - only a fool will mock you for it. So get in your car - and be there! (^^)


Trike flying is NOT a competition. NEVER let your good judgment be impaired by peer-pressure. We fly, because we enjoy it. The minute you feel uncomfortable - "opt out." :wink: I promise you, a lot of "older" pilots will join you in that moment of "weakness", and open a beer with you! We do not suffer from "alpha" A one personality syndrome. We don't have ego's. (Those who do have ego's die eventually. Although sad, it is but a step in evolution.) :wink: :wink:
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AWACS
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby AWACS » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:20 am

Guys,
Sorry, but I cannot find any bad weather which is unflyable with a Trike between 06:00 - 12:00 on the route from JHb to Numbi. Wind is from the north, light to moderate breeze, no clouds.

However, the situation changes after 12:00.

Aviation Met says @06:00 the wind is 330 deg, 15 kts - JHB @ 7500 ft
Gnd wind @FAMB (at 8:00) - 12 kts

Then climb to 10 000 ft -wind is 280 deg, 25 kts - nice tail wind.

CAVOK all the way
Then at Numbi @ 10:00 - 13 kts on the ground.

In my opinion - fly able weather provided we go early.

Sias will also let us know
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby Dish » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:47 am

Its all about the call isn't it.... I remember this time last year the weather was reported to be terrible - unflyable - woke up on morning of departure at aeroden to one of the most crisp beautiful mornings ever.... flew down in possibly the most perfect conditions. Laugh is that it was like that on the way back as well.... two of the most beautiful flights ive ever had...

So (repeating myself) - make good decisions, fly within your abilities, trailer in if you want / need to, but do be at numbi...... and DONT forget your fancy dress...
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby mulderpm » Thu Sep 19, 2013 8:58 am

Agreed AWACS but the forcast for Numbi for the weekend, from Saturday morning, is low cloud with the possibility of rain. This is until Monday mid morning. Tuesday morning at Middelburg and Microland also looks cloudy with the possibility of light rain. I will phone the MET office again this afternoon after 6pm. They update their models at that time and the prediction for Saturday is then more accurate.
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby nicow » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:07 am

I'll drive...
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby CVStrong » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:38 am

2 of us newbies from Centurion Flight Center are de-rigging this afternoon and driving on Friday... I know Fly the conditions and keep an eye on the forcasts, and take an educated call... The educated call on our part is we want to be there, we want to fly while there, but don't have the flying experience to play in the mountains... So we will be trailering...

Will see everyone there on Friday late afternoon...

Cheers

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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby nicow » Thu Sep 19, 2013 10:56 am

CVStrong wrote:2 of us newbies from Centurion Flight Center are de-rigging this afternoon and driving on Friday... I know Fly the conditions and keep an eye on the forcasts, and take an educated call... The educated call on our part is we want to be there, we want to fly while there, but don't have the flying experience to play in the mountains... So we will be trailering...

Will see everyone there on Friday late afternoon...

Cheers

Craig
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby ME 109 » Thu Sep 19, 2013 1:17 pm

Hi all Africa Cup fanatics!
I've just arrived home from Brasil, and after weather report checks and forum reports, my decision is made......I will be trailering down to Numbi, I just do not feel comfortable flying down as a novice first time for me over the escarpment :shock: with a ? mark on the weather :shock: Valuable advice from Asterix, makes perfect sense, to those flying down, fly safe, see you all on Friday evening.
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby mulderpm » Thu Sep 19, 2013 1:36 pm

!!!! !!!! Safety always first. (-)

Great to hear you arived safely Andries. See you there. (^^)
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby Nkwazi » Thu Sep 19, 2013 2:06 pm

Here's an update from THE WEATHER GURU, Sias.
Does not look like any cloud or rain between Baps and Middelb at 06:00Z 334/21 mph 6500 and 323/30 mph and from 09:00Z between Middelb and Hazyview 307/18 mph at 8500 and NW/calm below. At the mountain kwena 307/18 mph

no unstable air is showing up on the wind graphs but yes the winds are strong so careful at the mountain and as it from the NW expect rotors on the other side descending into kwena my be a challenge.

Low level wind to BELFAST ! is also something to think about

>> 323/30 mph is at 8500 at 10000ft 302/30 mph and 296/30 mph over the escarpment at 10000ft



Hope it helped
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby Tribal Croc » Thu Sep 19, 2013 3:37 pm

All is a go for tomorrow morning ##

Wheels up first light heading Lydenburg and then Hotel Numbi ##

I will be listening out for you guys on 124,8

With the nice tailwind I should be there just before 8 vhpy

Fly safe boys ## ##
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby AWACS » Thu Sep 19, 2013 6:21 pm

Hi Tribal Croc,
Skin (DOV) and myself will be airborne just before first light (FKU)

Land at FAMB to refuel for Skin, head for Sabie and refuel.

We will listen out for you.

Happy landings! (!!)
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby AWACS » Thu Sep 19, 2013 6:43 pm

For the guys considering to fly down, the latest from Av Met a few minutes ago;
FARA (Petit) - surface winds 360 deg @ 12 kts, 7500 ft 340 @ 10 kts -very normal

FAMB - surface winds 030 @ 7kts, 7500' 340 deg @12 kts, 8500' 310 deg @ 25 kts (that's a tailwind)

Graskop - surface to 6000' 350 deg @ 20 kts

Hazyview - surface winds 360 deg @ 10 kts, 4000' 300 deg @ 20 kts.

CAVOK all the way! :)

One thing is for sure - the upper air winds are stronger which means that we will have rotor on the eastern side of the escarpment - thus, we will route high over the escarpment and only descend once overhead Hazyview.

Happy landings! xxx
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby Tribal Croc » Thu Sep 19, 2013 6:49 pm

AWACS wrote:Hi Tribal Croc,
Skin (DOV) and myself will be airborne just before first light (FKU)

Land at FAMB to refuel for Skin, head for Sabie and refuel.

We will listen out for you.

Happy landings! (!!)
Sweet will see you there :)
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Re: Africa Cup 2013

Postby Tumbleweed » Thu Sep 19, 2013 6:49 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... day=Friday
Graskop is looking fine for Friday Morning.
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