Microlighters

Received the following e-mail:

Daar is 'n Nationale waarskuwing uit oor storms vanmiddag. Hulle verwag weerspatrone soortgelyk aan tornado's. Die temperatuur sal bleikbaar van so 5 uur vanmiddag af skerp val met omtrent 10 grade en dan verwag hulle stormagtige weer. Ek het dit op die nasionale weer buro se website nagegaan, en ek paste die stukkie daaroor hier. Johan hulle het 'n meer detailed verslag ontvang by die werk wat waarsku dat mense asb moet probeer om nie later as 5uur vanmiddag op die paaie te wees nie.

Die weerburo behoort seker deur die loop van die dag ook meer waarskuwings uit te bring indien dit lyk asof die situasie baie erg sal wees.

Expected Weather

National Warning - Issued on Monday, 8 October 2007 at 06:00.

Very cold conditions are expected to persist over the high ground areas of Western and Northern Cape, as well as over the Northern Mountains of Eastern Cape and South-Western and Western interior of KZN.

Heavy falls of rain are expected over Northern KZN, North Eastern Free State as well as the Eastern Highveld of Mpumalanga and Gauteng.

Severe thunderstorms, associated with strong, damaging surface winds are expected in late afternoon and evening over the Eastern Highveld, Gauteng, the Southern Highveld of Mpumalanga and extreme Northern Free State.

Henni

News 24 seems to think warnings have been exagerated although storms are expected this evening. We have had chaos at work, schools have been sending sms's to the parents requesting they collect their kids. If storms do reach JHB will only be between 18h00 and 20h00 which doesn't help me as I travel from 17h00 to 18h45. Hopefully this means everyone will be off the road and I will get home earlier.
I have suggested to my staff if they are worried they work late and sit it out. All of a sudden they don't mind driving in the rain.

Some of the spam e-mails that have come in here are warning against tornado's
From News 24

Tornado warnings 'exaggerated'
08/10/2007 14:02 - (SA)


SA warned of more bad weather

Strong winds, rain cause havoc

Bad weather delays flights

Tsunami alert rattles SA

Verashni Pillay


Johannesburg - The SA Weather Service said while there was a chance of severe storms hitting Gauteng on Monday, e-mail and SMS warnings about a possible tornado were grossly exaggerated.

The Weather Service said thunderstorms were expected in the province, which could build to severe storms, according to Talk radio, 702.

But forecaster Mark Todd said the Weather Service had not issued a tornado warning.

Todd said there was a risk one or two thunderstorms may become severe, but there was no guarantee they would be thunderstorms.

Johannesburg Aviation Weather Centre said they were expecting the "usual" storms. "We are expecting isolated thunderstorms over Gauteng," Teboho Moloi told News24 on Monday afternoon.

Moloi said that the strong winds, already between 20 and 30 knots, were significant for aviation, but said no flights had been cancelled yet.

"One or two of the storms might have hail," said Moloi. The Aviation centre's definition of a severe thunderstorm included hail with a radius of 2cm.

Moloi said the warnings were for the period from 14:00 till about 22:00 or 11:00 on Monday night

"It's just on and off storms," he said.

If OR Tambo's forecast anything to go by - I would say it is a hoax

FAJS 080900Z 081212 03018KT 9999 FEW030CB SCT035 BKN080 TEMPO 1221
5000 TSRA BKN020 FM2130 06008KT SCT015 BECMG 0204 BKN010
TEMPO 0406 4000 BR BKN005 FM0600 06010KT 9999 BKN020 BECMG
0810 06012KT SCT030 BECMG 1012 FEW030CB SCT035
TX26/12ZTN12/04Z=

Some rain and less than 20 knots of wind. Looks like a coastal day.

you cannot get near a weather channel now, everything is blocked solid

However I managed to get to Aviation Weather and this is the 6 to 9 hour TAF for FAJS

FAJS 081200Z 081324 03015G25KT 9999 FEW030CB SCT035 BKN080 TEMPO 1221 5000 TSRA BKN020 FM2130 06010KT 9999 SCT015
TX26/13ZTN13/24Z=

08th 12h00Z (14h00) to 13h00 to 24h00 030deg 15kt gusting to 25kt 9999 (clear visibility) Few Charley Bravos at 3000ft, scattered at 3500ft Broken at 8000ft TEMPOrary 14h00 to 21h00 visibility dropping to 5000m, Thundershowers and RAin, Broken 2000ft, From 21h30 wind 060deg, 10 knots clear skies, scattered clouds at 1500, Temp max 26/ measured at 13h00 min 13 measured at 24h Zulu


There is a weather warning out
FAJS AD WRNG 3 VALID 081230/081330
SFC VIS 5000 TSRA ISOL CB OBS MOV SSE=

Basically saying 08th 12h30 to 13h30 Zulu (i.e. 14h30 to 15h30 local time) Service Visibility 5000 meters, Thundershowers and Rain, ISOLated Charley Bravos, OBServed MOVing South South East

skybound ® wrote:If OR Tambo's forecast anything to go by - I would say it is a hoax

FAJS 080900Z 081212 03018KT 9999 FEW030CB SCT035 BKN080 TEMPO 1221
5000 TSRA BKN020 FM2130 06008KT SCT015 BECMG 0204 BKN010
TEMPO 0406 4000 BR BKN005 FM0600 06010KT 9999 BKN020 BECMG
0810 06012KT SCT030 BECMG 1012 FEW030CB SCT035
TX26/12ZTN12/04Z=

Some rain and less than 20 knots of wind. Looks like a coastal day.

Pretty much standard FAJS TAF from October to April, ie standard highveld summer weather.


Dre'man wrote:

SA warned of more bad weather

Strong winds, rain cause havoc

Bad weather delays flights

Tsunami alert rattles SA

Verashni Pillay

I like the Tsunami alert. Now who got rattled?

HI Guys,

This was on www.weathersa.co.za 's front page:

National Warning - Issued on Monday, 8 October 2007 at 06.00

Very cold conditions are expected to persist over the highground areas of Western and Northern Cape, as well as over the northern mountains of Eastern Cape and south-western and western interior of KwaZulu-Natal.
Heavy falls of rain are expected over northern KwaZulu-Natal, north-eastern Free State as well as the eastern highveld of Mpumalanga and Gauteng. Severe thunderstorms, asssociated with strong, damaging surface winds are expected in late afternoon and evening over the eastern highveld, Gauteng, the southern highveld of Mpumalanga and extreme northern Free State.

We had some bad WX come through Springs on Saturday evening, doing some damage to newly erected hangars, blowing over mini lookout radio towers, collapsing carports etc. One hangar's doors fell onto a cessna, I don't know the fellow but it looked like he was really lucky and it looks like minimal damage. Trees were uprooted, lamp poles pushed over, and power lines down next to the field.

Given the Bad WX we had on Saturday, the warning on SA WX's front page we did not take any chances and went to secure our hangars a bit more.

If you were in our shoes wouldn't you do the same???

Regards
Rudi

Eina,

I hope the aerie isn't too badly damaged

RudiGreyling wrote:HI Guys,

This was on www.weathersa.co.za 's front page:

National Warning - Issued on Monday, 8 October 2007 at 06.00

Very cold conditions are expected to persist over the highground areas of Western and Northern Cape, as well as over the northern mountains of Eastern Cape and south-western and western interior of KwaZulu-Natal.
Heavy falls of rain are expected over northern KwaZulu-Natal, north-eastern Free State as well as the eastern highveld of Mpumalanga and Gauteng. Severe thunderstorms, asssociated with strong, damaging surface winds are expected in late afternoon and evening over the eastern highveld, Gauteng, the southern highveld of Mpumalanga and extreme northern Free State.

We had some bad WX come through Springs on Saturday evening, doing some damage to newly erected hangars, blowing over mini lookout radio towers, collapsing carports etc. One hangar's doors fell onto a cessna, I don't know the fellow but it looked like he was really lucky and it looks like minimal damage. Trees were uprooted, lamp poles pushed over, and power lines down next to the field.

Given the Bad WX we had on Saturday, the warning on SA WX's front page we did not take any chances and went to secure our hangars a bit more.

If you were in our shoes wouldn't you do the same???

Regards
Rudi

So Rudi...a bit off topic but how long before this did you land with your new baby? I have spies at Springs you see...my mate Malcolm says he has to wait in the circuit for a certain somebody to land with his new trike.

Hey chaps,

Check the damage this "devastating" storm caused at my place yesterday!
Eina!

Hi Slysi....

Oh well.....I tried